Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
